Got a couple of fancys today so here goes:-
Goodwood Mirage 12.40 Cheltenham
Was a good flat performer and done well on his first start over hurdles with a short head win, will improve for that race and the Triumph hurdle is the target for this horse so they will be desperate to win this race. With a stronger pace on here today they will be there at the finish and the strong uphill finish will help him get home in front with his flat pace helping out.
Our Bob 1.50 Cheltenham
Has not had the best of seasons so far and 3m was to far last time out but did well to finish 3rd to Unioniste who will go on to better things this year. A drop in trip will suit this horse and hopefully the fitting of blinkers will bring the spark back to this horse in this race, where last year he was in contention until he was hampered and got unseated. I think a big run will be had today and is a very decent e/w bet today.
Saturday 25 January 2014
Wednesday 11 September 2013
Doncaster stats
SAEED BIN SUROOR
There are a number of trainers who do well at this meeting but probably top of the pile is Saeed Bin Suroor who has managed 18 winners from his 82 runners (22% strike rate) although he only just ekes out a profit (+1.24pts)
Backing his runners that won last time out looks the best play as 10 of his 22 (45%) such runners have won showing a LSP of +12.61pts
His 2yo runners do particularly well with 9 of his 22 (41%) such runners winning although they are usually well fancied.
Another good angle for his runners is to back those that are raised in class compared to their last run. Of the 32 such horses to have run 12 of them have won (37.5%) for a LSP of +19.99pts
His female runners are also worth noting with 5 of his 16 runners winning (31%).
His Group race runner figures are pretty impressive too with 7 of his 22 (32%) runners winning in this company to show a profit of +14.44pts.
His runners are best avoided on the Thursday of the meeting as he has managed just 1 winner from 15 runners.
Another type of runner worth forgetting are those who are dropped in trip compared to their last run. Just 1 of his 18 such runners were successful and only 3 were placed.
Which if we put it all together gives us this fantastic little system…..
Back the Saeed Bin Suroor 2 and 3yo’s who are up in class and had their last run in the previous 19-70 day period.
12 winners from 19 runners (63%) and a LSP of +32.99pts. They finished: 2113210111112831111
RICHARD HANNON
Richard Hannon beats Saeed Bin Suroor for number of wins as he has trained 21 since 2003 but they have come from 140 runners so his strike rate (15%) isn’t quite as good as the Godolphin trainer. He does however show a pretty impressive LSP of +45.24pts!
In class 1 races he has an excellent record of 12 winners from 36 runners (33.3%) and shows a LSP of +82.83pts
Richard Hughes has ridden 8 winners for the Hannon yard from 34 rides (24%) and shows a LSP of +14.08pts. Ryan Moore has also ridden 8 winners for the Hannon Yard from a similar number of rides, 35 (23%). He though shows a better LSP of +29.91pts.
All 21 of his winners were 28/1 or less. He has had just 1 placed horse from the 31 runners that were sent of at 33/1 or bigger.
Just 3 of his 21 winners have come in handicaps from 43 runners. They show a LSL of -19.5pts
It’s also best to avoid his runners that finished 2nd last time out as only 1 of the 22 were successful. Those finishing 5th-9th last time out show a LSP of +66pts (10 winners from 50 runners)
I’ve been through all the stats and quite simply the best system for backing Richard Hannon horses at the Doncaster St Leger meeting is……
Back all his runners in Class 1 contests!
JOHN GOSDEN
Third in the trainer win list sits John Gosden who has had 13 winners from 63 runners (20.6%) since 2003. Blindly backing all his runners at the meeting would have made you +38pts.
All of his winners came over 7f or further
12 of his 13 winners came in Class 1 or 2 contests.
12 of his 13 winners had run at least twice in their career. All 7 of his unraced runners were beaten.
10 of his 13 winners came on the Friday and Saturday of the meeting.
William Buick has ridden 8 of his 13 winners from just 25 rides and shows a LSP of +20.43pts
Just 2 of his winners were female from 16 such runners.
With Mr Gosden it seems the best system is to wait until the Friday and Saturday of the meeting and then back…..
All his male runners in class 1 or class 2 contests that are over 1m or further.
8 winners from 20 runners (40%) and a LSP of +59.13pts.
———–
As is usually the case the Sir Michael Stoute runners are usually well fancied making it hard to find any profitable angles and Mark Johnston has too many runners meaning a low strike rate %. So for the next two in the list I will side with a couple of ‘second tier’ trainers….
JEREMY NOSEDA
He’s managed 8 winners from 44 runners which is a strike rate of around 18%. Backing his runners blindly would have lost you a relatively small -0.67pts. A further 6 of his horses were placed.
All of his 8 winners were in Class 1 or Class 2 contests
All of his 8 winners were in races up to 1m3f
All of his 8 winners were 9/1 or shorter in the betting
All of his 8 winners were rated 97 or higher
All of his 8 winners had run at least 3 times in their career so far
All of his 8 winners finished in the top 6 last time out
All of his 8 winners had raced in the previous 60 days
7 of his 8 winners were racing in the same class band as their last run
Which means we have lots of ammunition to construct our Noseda System. I think the best type to look for are…..
Those rated 97+ that are not down in class and are 9/1 or under.
He’s had 13 such runners since 2003 and 8 have won (61.5%). They show a LSP of +30.33pts and finished: 5151111012141
WILLIE HAGGAS
Willie Haggas is always worth a mention at these big meetings as he doesn’t run that many horses but those he does are usually in the shake-up. The Doncaster St Leger meeting is no exception as his 30 runners have produced 5 wins and 9 places. You would though have made a small LSL of -6.49pts backing them blindly.
The most striking thing about his stats is that all 5 of his winners finished in the top 3 last time out, they were all 9/1 or shorter and they were all aged 2-4yo.
By solely backing these types we would have had 5 winners from 9 runners (55.5%) plus 3 placed and shown a LSP of +14.51pts. They finished: 212112131 making at the very least, a good system for Placepot picks!
Info courtesy of nag-nag-nag.co.uk
There are a number of trainers who do well at this meeting but probably top of the pile is Saeed Bin Suroor who has managed 18 winners from his 82 runners (22% strike rate) although he only just ekes out a profit (+1.24pts)
Backing his runners that won last time out looks the best play as 10 of his 22 (45%) such runners have won showing a LSP of +12.61pts
His 2yo runners do particularly well with 9 of his 22 (41%) such runners winning although they are usually well fancied.
Another good angle for his runners is to back those that are raised in class compared to their last run. Of the 32 such horses to have run 12 of them have won (37.5%) for a LSP of +19.99pts
His female runners are also worth noting with 5 of his 16 runners winning (31%).
His Group race runner figures are pretty impressive too with 7 of his 22 (32%) runners winning in this company to show a profit of +14.44pts.
His runners are best avoided on the Thursday of the meeting as he has managed just 1 winner from 15 runners.
Another type of runner worth forgetting are those who are dropped in trip compared to their last run. Just 1 of his 18 such runners were successful and only 3 were placed.
Which if we put it all together gives us this fantastic little system…..
Back the Saeed Bin Suroor 2 and 3yo’s who are up in class and had their last run in the previous 19-70 day period.
12 winners from 19 runners (63%) and a LSP of +32.99pts. They finished: 2113210111112831111
RICHARD HANNON
Richard Hannon beats Saeed Bin Suroor for number of wins as he has trained 21 since 2003 but they have come from 140 runners so his strike rate (15%) isn’t quite as good as the Godolphin trainer. He does however show a pretty impressive LSP of +45.24pts!
In class 1 races he has an excellent record of 12 winners from 36 runners (33.3%) and shows a LSP of +82.83pts
Richard Hughes has ridden 8 winners for the Hannon yard from 34 rides (24%) and shows a LSP of +14.08pts. Ryan Moore has also ridden 8 winners for the Hannon Yard from a similar number of rides, 35 (23%). He though shows a better LSP of +29.91pts.
All 21 of his winners were 28/1 or less. He has had just 1 placed horse from the 31 runners that were sent of at 33/1 or bigger.
Just 3 of his 21 winners have come in handicaps from 43 runners. They show a LSL of -19.5pts
It’s also best to avoid his runners that finished 2nd last time out as only 1 of the 22 were successful. Those finishing 5th-9th last time out show a LSP of +66pts (10 winners from 50 runners)
I’ve been through all the stats and quite simply the best system for backing Richard Hannon horses at the Doncaster St Leger meeting is……
Back all his runners in Class 1 contests!
JOHN GOSDEN
Third in the trainer win list sits John Gosden who has had 13 winners from 63 runners (20.6%) since 2003. Blindly backing all his runners at the meeting would have made you +38pts.
All of his winners came over 7f or further
12 of his 13 winners came in Class 1 or 2 contests.
12 of his 13 winners had run at least twice in their career. All 7 of his unraced runners were beaten.
10 of his 13 winners came on the Friday and Saturday of the meeting.
William Buick has ridden 8 of his 13 winners from just 25 rides and shows a LSP of +20.43pts
Just 2 of his winners were female from 16 such runners.
With Mr Gosden it seems the best system is to wait until the Friday and Saturday of the meeting and then back…..
All his male runners in class 1 or class 2 contests that are over 1m or further.
8 winners from 20 runners (40%) and a LSP of +59.13pts.
———–
As is usually the case the Sir Michael Stoute runners are usually well fancied making it hard to find any profitable angles and Mark Johnston has too many runners meaning a low strike rate %. So for the next two in the list I will side with a couple of ‘second tier’ trainers….
JEREMY NOSEDA
He’s managed 8 winners from 44 runners which is a strike rate of around 18%. Backing his runners blindly would have lost you a relatively small -0.67pts. A further 6 of his horses were placed.
All of his 8 winners were in Class 1 or Class 2 contests
All of his 8 winners were in races up to 1m3f
All of his 8 winners were 9/1 or shorter in the betting
All of his 8 winners were rated 97 or higher
All of his 8 winners had run at least 3 times in their career so far
All of his 8 winners finished in the top 6 last time out
All of his 8 winners had raced in the previous 60 days
7 of his 8 winners were racing in the same class band as their last run
Which means we have lots of ammunition to construct our Noseda System. I think the best type to look for are…..
Those rated 97+ that are not down in class and are 9/1 or under.
He’s had 13 such runners since 2003 and 8 have won (61.5%). They show a LSP of +30.33pts and finished: 5151111012141
WILLIE HAGGAS
Willie Haggas is always worth a mention at these big meetings as he doesn’t run that many horses but those he does are usually in the shake-up. The Doncaster St Leger meeting is no exception as his 30 runners have produced 5 wins and 9 places. You would though have made a small LSL of -6.49pts backing them blindly.
The most striking thing about his stats is that all 5 of his winners finished in the top 3 last time out, they were all 9/1 or shorter and they were all aged 2-4yo.
By solely backing these types we would have had 5 winners from 9 runners (55.5%) plus 3 placed and shown a LSP of +14.51pts. They finished: 212112131 making at the very least, a good system for Placepot picks!
Info courtesy of nag-nag-nag.co.uk
Wednesday warriors
Justineo 3.0 donc 7/2
Larks Lad 4.55 uttox 7/2
Sleepy blue ocean 5.15 donc 10/1
Belle de fontenay 2.40 uttox 4/1
Henke 2.20 carl 6/1
Captain Arceus 5.0 galw 11/4
50p e/w Alphabet (2 patents,yankee, accum) Total Bet £26.00
Larks Lad 4.55 uttox 7/2
Sleepy blue ocean 5.15 donc 10/1
Belle de fontenay 2.40 uttox 4/1
Henke 2.20 carl 6/1
Captain Arceus 5.0 galw 11/4
50p e/w Alphabet (2 patents,yankee, accum) Total Bet £26.00
Tuesday 10 September 2013
Tuesday Steamers 10/9/2013
On my own 4.0 redc 11/2
The cockney mackem 3.40 worc 6/4
Blue Atlantic 6.40 bev 7/2
Surcingle 4.20 leic 3/1
Talented Kid 2.50 leic 5/2
50p Lucky 31 pays roughly £2k 25p e/w accum £16 bet
Anger Management 5.10 worc 4/1
Nassau Storm 2.50 leoc 7/1
Kohlaan 6.10 bev 11/4
50p e/w patent £7 bet
Freemason / Raise your Gaze 2.20 leic £3.50 r/fc £7 bet
The cockney mackem 3.40 worc 6/4
Blue Atlantic 6.40 bev 7/2
Surcingle 4.20 leic 3/1
Talented Kid 2.50 leic 5/2
50p Lucky 31 pays roughly £2k 25p e/w accum £16 bet
Anger Management 5.10 worc 4/1
Nassau Storm 2.50 leoc 7/1
Kohlaan 6.10 bev 11/4
50p e/w patent £7 bet
Freemason / Raise your Gaze 2.20 leic £3.50 r/fc £7 bet
Friday 30 August 2013
Football £2 to win £1,500
I’ve put together a guide for doing a larger accumulator that will gain a higher return for a smaller stake at better odds. How good does that sound!
The probability of winning though is the true odds of over 500/1 (1000/2) and the possible outcomes of these eight matches are 8^3 which equals 512.
Trying to pick eight correct results from 512 possibilities is a pretty tall order so if you have been wondering why you struggle to get close to a winner there is your answer.
The odds spread I’ve used for this accumulator is 21/20, 11/10, 6/5, and 5/4. In fact if you placed eight bets at 5/4 you would return the princely sum of £1,313.68 for a £2 stake and at the other end of the scale eight bets at 21/20 would return £623.82
If you stick to this odds spread then you can be pretty sure that your return is going to be around the £1,000 mark and you are keeping your odds as short as possible to get there for the eight selections
When picking the games for this accumulator you should be looking to find eight home wins only – trying to predict draws in an eight game selection is going to be pretty futile and mixing up home and away wins is just going to confuse the matter so it’s best just to concentrate on finding eight home winners.
Wednesday 28 August 2013
Wednesday 28 August
Skytrain 3.40 catt
Skyes the Limit 2.10 catt
Looks like Rain 3.1o catt
RedCape 4.10 Catt
Tellovoi 4.0 Carl
No Leaf Clover 2.30 Carl
Molon Labe 4.20 Worc
Seek Again 8.10 Kemp
Fairy Wing 5.50 South
Same Bet as yesterday 2 5p Canadian/Super Yankee 10p Dbls and 20p e/w accum
Skyes the Limit 2.10 catt
Looks like Rain 3.1o catt
RedCape 4.10 Catt
Tellovoi 4.0 Carl
No Leaf Clover 2.30 Carl
Molon Labe 4.20 Worc
Seek Again 8.10 Kemp
Fairy Wing 5.50 South
Same Bet as yesterday 2 5p Canadian/Super Yankee 10p Dbls and 20p e/w accum
Tuesday 27 August 2013
Tuesdays Killers
After a few quite weeks away from horse racing ive decided to give it ago again and see if i can get back into this mugs game. Going to go back to my basics see if i can turn a profit from small stakes.
Khalice 3.05 Ripon 7/2
Strikemaster 5.15 Ripon 5/1
Rural Celebration 2.30 Ripon 4/1
Sardanapalus 4.45 ripon 5/1
Anginola 4.30 Epsom 15/2 5p canadian
A childs dream 2.15 epsom 9/4
Smart Ruler 5.25 sedge 5/4
Sky khan 6.55 sedge 2/5
Slip of the tongue 6.45 south 2/1
Akeed dubani 6.15 south 11/8 5p canadian
45 dbls @ 10p 20pe/w accum
Total Bet = £7.50
1st canadian payout £766.52 2nd = £21.71 Doubles = 78.27 e/w accum pays £100k
Always hope guys cant we
Not bad day Guys 5 winners, 1 N/r, 1 Placed +£6.50 Profit
Khalice 3.05 Ripon 7/2
Strikemaster 5.15 Ripon 5/1
Rural Celebration 2.30 Ripon 4/1
Sardanapalus 4.45 ripon 5/1
Anginola 4.30 Epsom 15/2 5p canadian
A childs dream 2.15 epsom 9/4
Smart Ruler 5.25 sedge 5/4
Sky khan 6.55 sedge 2/5
Slip of the tongue 6.45 south 2/1
Akeed dubani 6.15 south 11/8 5p canadian
45 dbls @ 10p 20pe/w accum
Total Bet = £7.50
1st canadian payout £766.52 2nd = £21.71 Doubles = 78.27 e/w accum pays £100k
Always hope guys cant we
Not bad day Guys 5 winners, 1 N/r, 1 Placed +£6.50 Profit
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)